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热环循环在突然气候变化中的作用
Peter U Clark1, Nicklas G Pisias, Thomas F Stocker
1Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA. clarkp@ucs.orst.edu
Nature
|February 23, 2002
概括
温室气体的增加可能会减少大西洋循环. 过去的气候数据显示,突然变化是由水文变化驱动的,通过反影响全球气候.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 古气候学 古气候学
背景情况:
- 一般循环模型模拟了由于温室气体而减少的大西洋热循环.
- 由于模型的不确定性和气候系统的反应,评估未来的热环流变化具有挑战性.
- 过去的突然气候变化为热环流动动力学提供了洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 分析过去的突然气候变化,以更好地了解未来的热环流稳定性.
- 研究水文循环在引发突然气候变化的作用.
- 评估平均气候状态对热环流动稳定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了最后一次冰河时期的古气候数据.
- 使用合的海洋-大气一般循环模型.
- 将模型模拟与古气候证据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 最后一次冰河时期的突然气候变化是由大西洋热环流的变化引发的.
- 水文周期的小变化足以引发这些突然的变化.
- 全球大气和海洋反应是由反机制调解的.
- 热haline循环稳定性取决于当前的平均气候状态.
结论:
- 过去的气候重建和模型结果表明,水文循环变化和气候突然变化之间存在联系.
- 大西洋热环流在过去和潜在的未来气候变化中发挥着关键作用.
- 了解过去的气候动态对于预测海洋循环对人为变暖的反应至关重要.
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Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Heating and Cooling Curves
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