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Published on: February 12, 2013
小行星1950 DA在2880年与地球相撞:碰撞概率预测的物理极限
J D Giorgini1, S J Ostro, L A M Benner
1Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109-8099, USA. Jon.Giorgini@jpl.nasa.gov
概括
小行星1950 DA在2880年碰撞地球的可能性很小. 需要进一步研究其旋转轴,组成和表面特性,以改进撞击概率.
科学领域:
- 天文学和天体物理学.
- 星球科学 星球科学
- 轨道动力学 轨道动力学
背景情况:
- 小行星1950 DA是一个1公里的近地天体.
- 准确的轨迹预测对于评估冲击风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定小行星1950 DA的潜在地球撞击概率.
- 确定影响轨迹不确定性的因素.
主要方法:
- 整合了51年的天文数据 (雷达和光学).
- 对轨道动态的分析,包括引力共振和倾斜.
- 太阳辐射对小行星轨道压力影响的建模.
主要成果:
- 在2880年3月的20分钟窗口内,与地球发生碰撞的概率是不可忽视的.
- 轨道的准确性是通过广泛的数据,轨道几何和共振调制来保持的.
- 接近距离的不确定性主要是由热再辐射加速驱动的.
结论:
- 细化小行星1950 DA的碰撞概率需要直接的航天器观测.
- 了解小行星旋转,组成和表面特性是改善撞击预测的关键.
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