从观测和气候模型组合中对辐射强迫和未来气候变化的限制
Reto Knutti1, Thomas F Stocker, Fortunat Joos
1Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland.
Nature
|April 19, 2002
概括
这项研究使用蒙特卡洛方法来量化全球变暖预测中的不确定性. 结果显示,全球气温将超过IPCC预测的可能性为40%,这突显了需要改进的气候模型的需要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境建模环境建模
- 大气物理大气物理学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖预测在很大程度上依赖于专家的判断,因为气候变量量化不佳.
- 在气候对温室气体和气溶辐射强迫效应的敏感性方面存在关键的不确定性.
- 这些不确定性导致全球变暖模拟中的显著变化.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种使用低复杂度模型进行气候预测的概率方法.
- 纳入输入参数和气候模型本身的不确定性.
- 用历史的海洋和大气变暖观测来限制模型反应.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟技术.
- 使用了复杂度降低的气候模型.
- 限制模型参数与过去的气候观测.
主要成果:
- 为当今的总辐射强迫 (1.42.4 W m−2) 生成了一个概率密度函数.
- 将全球平均间接气溶效应缩小到0到-1.2W m-2.2.
- 综合模拟表明,超过IPCC预测的全球变暖范围的概率为40%.
结论:
- 概率气候预测可以有效地减少全球变暖评估中的不确定性.
- 该研究为辐射强迫和气溶效应提供了更受限制的范围.
- 未来变暖可能超过目前已确定的预测的可能性很大.
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