在田径运动中的趋势和随机波动
Daniel Gembris1, John G Taylor, Dieter Suter
1Institute of Medicine, Research Center Jülich GmbH, D-52425 Jülich, Germany. d.gembris@fz-juelich.de
Nature
|May 31, 2002
概括
运动绩效的提高可能不仅仅是由于训练和装备. 随机机会也起着作用,许多体育学科表现出性能和,而不是持续的进步.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 绩效分析 绩效分析
- 生物机械工程 生物机械工程
背景情况:
- 运动成就通常归因于训练方法和设备的进步.
- 然而,在体育表现上,固有的变性和机会因素的影响往往被低估.
- 了解系统进步和随机变化之间的相互作用对于准确的绩效评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在体育表现中区分系统进步和偶然效应.
- 量化随机变化的对运动记录的影响.
- 评估各种学科的全球最佳体育成绩的和程度.
主要方法:
- 对历史运动表现数据的统计分析.
- 在缺乏系统进步的情况下,预期绩效范围的估计.
- 估计范围与实际记录的最佳性能进行比较.
- 对22个体育学科年度最佳成绩趋势的分析.
主要成果:
- 在22个分析的体育学科中,只有4个体育学科在统计学上表现出显著的系统性改善.
- 相当一部分的性能变化似乎归因于偶然因素.
- 在几个学科中观察到表现和的证据,表明潜在改善的平原.
- 该研究强调了将所有绩效提升归因于培训和设备的局限性.
结论:
- 系统的进步并不是所有体育学科的普遍现象.
- 随机机会显著影响运动结果,经常掩盖或模仿系统的改进.
- 性能和表明,在某些运动中,身体或技术的极限可能正在接近.
- 含有进步和机会的细微理解对于未来的体育表现分析至关重要.
相关概念视频
Regression Toward the Mean
Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when researchers try to extrapolate results...
Non-uniform Circular Motion
In uniform circular motion, the particle executing circular motion has a constant speed, and the circle is at a fixed radius. However, not all circular motion occurs at a constant speed. A particle can travel in a circle and speed up or slow down, showing an acceleration in the direction of motion. In that case, the motion is called non-uniform circular motion, and an additional acceleration is introduced, which is in the direction tangential to the circle.
For example, such accelerations...
For example, such accelerations...
Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test I
The Wald-Wolfowitz test, also known as the runs test, is a nonparametric statistical test used to assess the randomness of a sequence of two different types of elements (e.g., positive/negative values, successes/failures). It examines whether the order of the elements in a sequence is random or if there is a pattern or trend present. This nonparametric test applies to any ordered data despite the population and sample data distribution, even if a higher sample size is available.
The test works...
The test works...
Random Error
Random or indeterminate errors originate from various uncontrollable variables, such as variations in environmental conditions, instrument imperfections, or the inherent variability of the phenomena being measured. Usually, these errors cannot be predicted, estimated, or characterized because their direction and magnitude often vary in magnitude and direction even during consecutive measurements. As a result, they are difficult to eliminate. However, the aggregate effect of these errors can be...
Run Charts
Run charts serve as an essential instrument for visualizing the performance of various processes over time, enabling the identification of trends and patterns crucial for quality improvement. These charts map out a series of data points chronologically, offering insights into the stability and efficiency of a process. A run chart's creation involves plotting data points on a graph, with the time intervals on the horizontal axis and the specific measurements on the vertical axis. For example,...
Interpreting Run Charts
Run charts, essentially line graphs plotted over time, serve as fundamental yet effective tools for process analysis. They chronicle data sequentially, facilitating the identification of trends, shifts, or cyclical movements. This graphical representation is instrumental in determining whether a process is stable or exhibits signs of potential instability indicative of special cause variation. In the healthcare domain, run charts depict infection rates over time, enabling hospitals to monitor...


