通过扩大应对措施,我们能否扭转艾滋病毒/艾滋病的流行?
John Stover1, Neff Walker, Geoff P Garnett
1Futures Group International, Glastonbury, CT, USA. j.stover@tfgi.com
Lancet (London, England)
|July 13, 2002
概括
扩大全球艾滋病毒/艾滋病预防工作可以在2010年之前预防2900万例新感染. 本分析研究了干预措施对人类免疫缺陷病毒传播和全球风险行为的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生干预 公共卫生干预
背景情况:
- 艾滋病毒/艾滋病是一个全球性流行病,也是导致死亡的主要原因.
- 2001年关于艾滋病毒/艾滋病的承诺宣言旨在减少这一流行病的影响.
- 在低收入和中等收入国家启动了扩大反应.
研究的目的:
- 检查扩大对艾滋病毒/艾滋病的全球应对措施的潜在影响.
- 分析预防干预措施对风险行为的影响.
- 为了建模HIV-1的传播.
主要方法:
- 对流行病学数据的分析.
- 对HIV-1传播动态的数学建模.
- 审查预防干预对风险行为的影响.
主要成果:
- 到2005年,成功的预防策略的全球扩张可以在2010年之前预防大约2900万个新的人类免疫缺陷病毒感染.
- 预防干预措施对风险行为产生了影响.
结论:
- 在全球范围内扩大成功的艾滋病毒/艾滋病预防干预措施至关重要.
- 数学建模和流行病学数据分析是评估干预有效性的关键.
- 一个协调的全球反应可以显著制艾滋病毒/艾滋病的流行.
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