最近北极地区气候变化的动态
Richard E Moritz1, Cecilia M Bitz, Eric J Steig
1Polar Science Center, Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105-6698, USA. dickm@apl.washington.edu
概括
最近的北极变暖显示极地放大,与北极振荡有关. 古气候数据表明,这种变暖模式并非新鲜,而是北极振荡.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 大气动力学 大气动力学
背景情况:
- 最近北极表面变暖显示极地放大,与北极振荡 (AO) 趋势相关.
- 古气候记录表明,20世纪北极的气温超过了前几个世纪,极地放大是一个反复出现的过去现象.
- 全新纪的北极振荡变化呈现出混合的古气候证据.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究近期北极变暖,极地放大和北极振荡之间的关系.
- 为了比较当前的北极气候趋势与有关温度和AO行为的古气候数据.
- 通过气候模型模拟,评估人类对北极振荡的影响作用.
主要方法:
- 对近期北极表面温度数据的分析.
- 对北极温度和北极振荡的古气候重建和分析.
- 全球气候模型模拟以评估人类对大气动态的影响.
主要成果:
- 观察到的北极变暖显示极地放大,并与北极振荡趋势有很强的联系.
- 古气候数据证实了20世纪北极温度的升高和历史极地放大.
- 气候模型在很大程度上无法复制观察到的北极振荡趋势和季节性/空间变暖模式.
结论:
- 虽然古气候表明极地放大是常见的,但Holocene AO数据是不确定的.
- 人类造成的强迫可能会影响最近的北极振荡趋势,但气候模型显示有差异.
- 模型模拟和观测之间的分歧凸显了理解北极气候动态的挑战.
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