通过直接测量应变积累和释放的测试时间可预测的地震复发
1Geophysics Department, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305-2215, USA. jrmurray@pangea.stanford.edu
Nature
|September 20, 2002
概括
用于危险评估的时间可预测地震模型在加利福尼亚州帕克菲尔德失败了. 这表明,即使在简单的构造环境中,预测地震复发也存在局限性.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
背景情况:
- 可能性的地震危险评估利用时间分布模型.
- 基于弹性反弹的时间可预测复发模型假设地震的概率随着时间的推移而增加自上次事件以来的时间.
- 这种模式广泛应用于加利福尼亚,新西兰和日本等易发生地震的地区.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估时间可预测的地震复发模型的准确性.
- 测试模型在一个记录良好的,相对简单的构造环境中的适用性.
主要方法:
- 地测测量的反转以估计复发时间限制.
- 1966年帕克菲尔德地震及其随后的地震周期的分析.
主要成果:
- 时间可预测模型预测到1987年,帕克菲尔德部分将再次发生地震.
- 地测数据的反转显示,模型的预测没有得到满足.
- 该模型在这个理想的测试地点显示出明显的故障.
结论:
- 时间可预测模型在加利福尼亚州帕克菲尔德的失败引起了人们对其可靠性的担忧.
- 该模型在简单的构造设置中的局限性可能会阻碍其在全球复杂断层系统中的应用.
相关概念视频
Stress-Strain Diagram
A stress-strain diagram is a crucial tool that graphically displays a material's mechanical characteristics. This diagram is derived from a tensile test performed on a carefully prepared cylindrical specimen. The specimen has two gauge marks inscribed on its central part, and the distance between these marks is known as the gauge length. The cylindrical specimen is placed in a testing machine, which applies an increasing centric load. As this load grows, so does the gauge length. This change in...
True Stress and True Strain
Engineering stress is calculated as the load divided by the original, undeformed cross-sectional area. It approximates a material under load. This approximation is especially relevant post-yield in ductile materials. Though engineering stress-strain diagrams are often used for their convenience and accessibility, they can sometimes fall short in accuracy, particularly when dealing with large strain values.
In contrast, true stress offers a more precise portrayal. It is computed by dividing the...
In contrast, true stress offers a more precise portrayal. It is computed by dividing the...
Plastic Behavior
A material's elastic behavior is characterized by the disappearance of stress once the load is removed, allowing the material to return to its original state. However, when stress surpasses the yield point, yielding commences, marking the onset of plastic deformation or permanent set. This change from elastic to plastic behavior is influenced by the peak stress value and the duration before the load is removed. An intriguing observation occurs when a specimen is loaded, unloaded, and reloaded.
Measurements of Strain
Strain quantifies the deformation of a material under force, typically measured as normal strain, which represents the change in length when compared with the original length. Electrical strain gauges are used for enhanced accuracy. These devices consist of a conductive wire mounted on a paper backing that adheres to the material's surface. These gauges operate on the piezoresistive effect, where the wire's electrical resistance changes in response to mechanical deformation. The strain gauge...
Dynamic Modulus of Elasticity of Concrete
The dynamic modulus of elasticity assesses how a concrete structure deforms under impact or dynamic loads. It is typically higher than the static modulus of elasticity, measured under slow, steady loading conditions.
The sonic test is a common method to determine the dynamic modulus. In this test, a concrete beam, sized either 6 x 6 x 30 inches or 4 x 4 x 20 inches, is clamped at its center. Vibrations are initiated at one end of the beam by an electromagnetic exciter unit powered by a...
The sonic test is a common method to determine the dynamic modulus. In this test, a concrete beam, sized either 6 x 6 x 30 inches or 4 x 4 x 20 inches, is clamped at its center. Vibrations are initiated at one end of the beam by an electromagnetic exciter unit powered by a...
Creep in Concrete
Creep refers to the time-dependent increase in strain under a sustained load, excluding other time-dependent deformations associated with shrinkage, swelling, and thermal expansion in concrete. The primary mechanism behind creep involves the loss of physically adsorbed water from the calcium silicate hydrate within the hydrated cement paste. This process is further exacerbated by concrete's non-linear stress-strain relationship, microcrack development in the interfacial transition zone, and...


