黑碳气溶在中国和印度的气候影响
Surabi Menon1, James Hansen, Larissa Nazarenko
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA. smenon@giss.nasa.gov
概括
全球气候模型显示,吸收黑碳气溶可能解释区域气候变化,如中国的洪水和干旱. 这些气溶显著影响大气条件和大规模的天气模式.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 区域气候建模 区域气候建模
背景情况:
- 最近在中国观察到的气候趋势包括南部夏季洪水增加和北部干旱.
- 在中国和印度已经注意到温和的冷却趋势,与全球变暖形成鲜明对比.
- 气溶在推动这些特定区域气候模式中的作用需要研究.
研究的目的:
- 调查气溶对中国和印度观察到的区域气候趋势的潜在贡献.
- 用全球气候模型模拟气候变化,并结合气溶效应.
- 评估吸收黑碳气溶对降水和温度模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用全球气候模型来模拟气候场景.
- 在模型模拟中包含不同比例的吸收黑碳 (煤烟) 气溶.
- 将降水和温度变化的模型输出与观察到的区域气候趋势进行比较.
主要成果:
- 模型模拟显示了降水和温度变化,与大量吸收黑碳气溶被纳入观测时的变化相当.
- 发现吸收气溶会加热大气,改变区域稳定性和垂直运动.
- 模拟效应包括对大规模大气循环和水文循环的影响.
结论:
- 吸收黑碳气溶是中国和印度观察到的区域气候趋势的一个可能因素.
- 气溶的特性,特别是吸收性,可以引起与全球变暖趋势截然不同的重大区域气候影响.
- 了解气溶与气候之间的相互作用对于解释和预测区域气候变化至关重要.
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