家庭动态对资源消费和生物多样性的影响
Jianguo Liu1, Gretchen C Daily, Paul R Ehrlich
1Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, E. Lansing, Michigan 48824, USA. jliu@panda.msu.edu
Nature
|January 24, 2003
概括
全球家庭增长,特别是生物多样性热点地区,超过了人口增长. 这种较小家庭数量的增加对生物多样性保护工作产生了重大影响.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 人口增长是生物多样性丧失的一个公认的驱动因素.
- 在人口学研究中,家庭动态及其对生物多样性的影响往往被忽视.
- 家庭规模和数量的变化可以显著影响人均消费和资源使用.
研究的目的:
- 研究家庭动态与生物多样性丧失之间的关系.
- 将全球家庭增长率与人口增长率进行比较,特别是在生物多样性热点地区.
- 量化改变家庭平均规模对未来家庭数量的影响.
主要方法:
- 对1985年至2000年全球人口统计数据的分析.
- 家庭数量增长与人口增长的比较.
- 基于平均家庭规模的趋势,对未来家庭增长进行建模.
主要成果:
- 全球家庭数量在1985年至2000年间的增长速度快于人口.
- 家庭数量增加,即使在一些地区的人口规模下降.
- 家庭平均规模的减少显著增加了家庭数量,特别是在生物多样性热点地区.
- 据估计,如果不减少平均家庭规模,在2000年将减少1.55亿个家庭.
结论:
- 由于家庭平均规模的减少,家庭数量的增加对生物多样性构成重大威胁.
- 城市扩张和与较小家庭相关的人均资源消费增加,挑战了保护工作.
- 未来的保护战略必须考虑家庭动态以及总人口趋势.
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