纪厄尔尼诺:证据表明"温室"中的强大的热带动力学
Matthew Huber1, Rodrigo Caballero
1Danish Center for Earth System Science, Niels Bohr Institute for Astronomy, Physics, and Geophysics, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100, Copenhagen Ø, Denmark. huberm@purdue.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 8, 2003
概括
与一些理论相反,Eocene温室气候并没有显著改变厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 动态. 气候模型和沉积物数据显示气候变暖,但是一个稳定的ENSO系统,提供了对全球变化相互作用的见解.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 关于厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 与长期全球变化的相互作用存在不确定性.
- 过去的温暖时期,如纪,是理解这些相互作用的关键试验案例.
- 现有的理论建议在极端的全球变暖期间转向永久的厄尔尼诺状况.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究极端全球变暖 (世纪) 对ENSO动态的影响.
- 将气候模型模拟与古气候代理数据进行比较.
- 测试将温室气候与改变ENSO状态联系起来的理论.
主要方法:
- 采用了合气候模型模拟,用于世时代.
- 从湖泊沉积物档案中分析了每年解决的变化记录.
- 将模型输出与过去气候变化的基于代理的重建进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 气候模拟表明,太平洋深海和高度地区的表面变暖显著 (约1. 10°C) 的时间.
- 在模型和代理模型中,在热带热带热带结构和ENSO动态中观察到的变化很小.
- 模型的结果与代理证据一致,显示ENSO在伊纪时期的稳定性.
结论:
- 纪温室气候并没有导致永久的厄尔尼诺状况.
- 这些发现挑战了将极端高温与ENSO的根本变化联系在一起的理论.
- 这项研究为ENSO对过去的全球变暖事件的抵御能力提供了有价值的见解.
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