检测人类对海平面压力的影响
Nathan P Gillett1, Francis W Zwiers, Andrew J Weaver
1School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, PO Box 3055, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 3P6, Canada. gillett@uvic.ca
人类活动,包括温室气体和硫酸盐气溶,影响了冬季海平面压力. 气候模型低估了人类对压力模式的影响,这可能会影响气候变化预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人类活动,主要是温室气体排放和硫酸盐气溶,已知会影响全球气候,特别是表面和海洋温度.
- 除了温度之外,人类对气候变量影响的程度仍然是活跃的研究领域.
研究的目的:
- 为了检测人为温室气体和硫酸盐气溶对冬季海平面压力的影响.
- 评估气候模型在模拟这些人为引起的海平面压力变化方面的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用四种气候模型的综合模拟来分析冬季海平面压力 (12月至2月).
- 将模型输出与观察数据进行比较,以确定人类影响.
主要成果:
- 检测到人为因素对冬季海平面压力模式的显著影响.
- 在亚热带北大西洋,欧洲南部和北非地区观察到海平面压力增加.
- 在极地地区和北太平洋上观测到海平面压力下降.
- 发现气候模型大大低估了海平面对人类影响的压力反应的大小.
结论:
- 人类对气候的影响超越温度,包括冬季的海平面压力.
- 当前的气候模型可能低估了人为气候变化对区域气候模式的全部影响,特别是在北大西洋地区.
- 模型中低估了海平面压力反应可能导致低估了气候变化对欧洲气候的影响.
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