气候敏感度的不确定性和没有二氧化碳排放的能源需求
Ken Caldeira1, Atul K Jain, Martin I Hoffert
1Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, L-103, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. kenc@llnl.gov
概括
气候敏感性的不确定性显著影响了允许的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量. 实现气候稳定需要大规模转向无二氧化碳能源,除非气候敏感性低,气候变化影响高.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
- 能源技术 能源技术 能源技术
背景情况:
- 联合国气候变化框架公约旨在稳定温室气体度.
- 由于不确定性,确定气候变化的"安全"水平具有挑战性.
- 目前对大气中二氧化碳的全球温度灵敏度的理解有三个不确定因素.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候敏感性的不确定性如何影响允许的二氧化碳度和排放.
- 评估过渡到无二氧化碳排放的能源技术的影响.
主要方法:
- 模拟气候敏感性不确定性对二氧化碳排放途径的影响.
- 评估不同气候敏感度下的气候稳定场景.
主要成果:
- 气候敏感度的不确定性因子为三,导致允许的二氧化碳增加和排放的不确定性更大.
- 气候稳定需要大幅减少二氧化碳排放,特别是如果气候敏感性不低的话.
结论:
- 气候稳定取决于大量采用无二氧化碳排放的能源.
- 关于气候变化的政策决策必须考虑到气候敏感性的重大不确定性.
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