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卫星数据不确定性对检测外部强迫气候变化的影响
B D Santer1, T M L Wigley, G A Meehl
1Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 6, 2003
概括
卫星数据显示热层温度趋势的不确定性,影响了气候变化检测. 数据集的差异意味着人类气候影响信号只在变暖趋势中发现,而不是稳定的趋势.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 卫星遥感 卫星遥感 卫星遥感
背景情况:
- 准确测量全球热层温度趋势对于了解气候变化至关重要.
- 基于卫星的温度数据集是气候信息的关键来源,但可以表现出不确定性.
- 已经注意到卫星导出的温度和气候模型预测之间的差异.
研究的目的:
- 调查来自卫星的热层温度数据中的不确定性对气候变化检测的影响.
- 评估卫星数据和气候模型之间声称的不一致性是否是数据质量的工件.
- 在不同的卫星温度数据集中确定人为气候变化信号的可检测性.
主要方法:
- 分析了两个独立的基于卫星的辐射排放数据集,涵盖了1979-2001年.
- 从这些数据集中得出的热层温度趋势的比较.
- 在卫星数据中统计检测模型预测的气候变化"指纹".
主要成果:
- 两个独立的卫星分析显示了不同十年的热层温度趋势 (0.1°C的差异).
- 一个数据集显示了显著的热层变暖,而另一个数据集显示了最小的变化.
- 气候模型的综合人为和自然效应"指纹"只能在升温卫星数据集中检测到.
结论:
- 卫星热带层温度数据中的不确定性可能会与气候模型产生明显的不一致性.
- 这些数据的不确定性可能会掩盖或错误地表明人类引起的气候变化信号的检测.
- 协调卫星数据集的差异对于强大的气候变化归因研究至关重要.
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