与冲突有关的平民人口死亡率的重要性
Debarati Guha-Sapir1, Willem Gijsbert van Panhuis
1World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), School of Public Health, Catholic University of Louvain, 1200, Brussels, Belgium. sapir@epid.ucl.ac.be
Lancet (London, England)
|June 27, 2003
概括
民间冲突显著增加了死亡率,特别是在幼儿中. 预先存在的社会脆弱性,而不是冲突强度,导致高平民死亡率,这表明先前的国际援助不足.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 民间冲突对全球的健康造成了深远的影响,需要大量的国际人道主义援助.
- 民间死亡率是评估冲突对健康影响的主要指标.
- 了解冲突期间和之后的死亡风险对于有效的援助和政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计受冲突影响地区的死亡率:苏丹,索马里,刚果民主共和国和阿富汗.
- 计算冲突期间和冲突后相对于冲突前的相对死亡风险.
- 确定影响冲突地区高平民死亡率的因素.
主要方法:
- 对冲突和冲突前时期的死亡率数据进行比较分析.
- 计算一般人口和五岁以下儿童死亡的相对风险 (RR).
- 评估特定的冲突地区,包括刚果民主共和国卡塔勒.
主要成果:
- 刚果民主共和国的卡塔勒在冲突期间死亡的相对风险最高.
- 在一般人群和5岁以下的儿童中都观察到高风险.
- 与和平时期相比,冲突时期的死亡率明显高于和平时期.
结论:
- 冲突期间的高平民死亡率与先前存在的人口脆弱性密切相关.
- 冲突的强度本身并不能完全解释死亡率的增加.
- 冲突前国际发展援助不足往往是高平民死亡人数的先驱.
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