平流层记忆和长期天气预报的技能
Mark P Baldwin1, David B Stephenson, David W J Thompson
1Northwest Research Associates, 14508 NE 20th Street, Bellevue, WA, 98007, USA.
概括
我们开发了一个统计模型,用于扩展范围的北极振荡 (AO) 预测. 预报技巧,特别是在冬季,依赖于持续的平流层循环异常影响热层.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 北极振荡 (AO) 是一个影响北半球天气的关键气候模式.
- 在扩展范围上预测AO仍然是一个挑战.
研究的目的:
- 证明对每月平均北极振荡 (AO) 的扩展范围预测技能的技能.
- 确定驱动AO可预测性的机制.
主要方法:
- 利用一个经验统计模型.
- 分析了平流层最低层的持续循环异常.
- 北极和南半球的可预测性比较.
主要成果:
- 在扩展范围的AO预测中表现出显著的技能.
- 预报技巧在北极冬季是最大的.
- 预测性取决于热带期以上持续的血液循环异常.
结论:
- 持续的平流层异常对于AO可预测性至关重要.
- 这些异常可能通过上层热带层波浪变化影响热带层.
- 这些发现增强了对大气远程连接和气候预测的理解.
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