发达国家的烟草死亡率:来自国家生命统计数据的间接估计
1Imperial Cancer Research Fund Cancer Studies Unit, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|June 2, 1992
概括
在发达国家,每年吸烟导致数百万人过早死亡,使其成为可预防死亡的主要原因. 预计这一趋势将进一步加剧,影响超过20%的人口.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 控制烟草的控制方式
背景情况:
- 长期吸烟是导致死亡的主要原因,除了肺癌之外,它还导致了死亡.
- 估计与烟草有关的死亡率对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计1965年至1995年发达国家每年因烟草造成的死亡人数.
- 评估20世纪90年代在发达国家中烟草造成的过早死亡的比例.
主要方法:
- 利用特定年龄和性别的肺癌率作为各种疾病导致的烟草死亡的代理.
- 应用了保守估计 (大型前性研究的一半) 对吸烟导致的非肺癌疾病的过度死亡率.
- 从1975年和1985年的国家死亡率数据进行了推断,以估计1995年的数据.
主要成果:
- 发达国家每年与烟草有关的死亡人数从1965年的090万增加到1995年的210万.
- 在20世纪90年代,烟草预计会导致35-69岁年龄组30%的死亡,使其成为早逝的最大原因.
- 预计发达国家目前超过20%的人口将被烟草杀死.
结论:
- 烟草使用是发达国家过早死亡的主要原因之一.
- 很大一部分死亡,特别是在年轻人中,可以通过戒烟来预防.
- 目前的吸烟模式表明,未来与烟草有关的死亡负担将会很大.
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