厄尔尼诺现象和健康
R Sari Kovats1, Menno J Bouma, Shakoor Hajat
1Department of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. sari.kovats@lshtm.ac.uk
Lancet (London, England)
|November 7, 2003
概括
厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 气候模式影响全球天气,增加灾害影响和霍乱和疟疾等疾病风险. 了解ENSO有助于公共卫生准备和资源分配.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺南方振荡 (ENSO) 是一个经常出现的气候现象,起源于太平洋.
- 包括厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜在内的ENSO事件对全球天气模式产生重大影响,经常导致干旱和洪水等极端事件.
- 这些气候变化对公众健康有着记录良好的影响,特别是在传染病爆发方面.
研究的目的:
- 审查ENSO与公共卫生结果之间的确立和潜在联系.
- 突出ENSO对疾病风险管理和灾难准备的影响.
- 为卫生规划者提供有关利用气候预测进行时间风险管理的信息.
主要方法:
- 对时间序列分析的系统审查,检查ENSO与疾病发病率的关联.
- 对ENSO对各种传染病的影响的证据强度的评估.
- 对公共卫生规划和资源分配的影响分析.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,ENSO与自然灾害对人类影响的增加密切相关.
- 在ENSO和孟加拉国的霍乱和南亚和南美洲的疟疾风险增加之间存在确定的联系.
- 与疟疾和霍乱相比,对ENSO对其他蚊子和动物传播的疾病的影响的证据不那么强大.
结论:
- 恩索对公共健康来说是一个重要的时间风险因素,需要纳入规划.
- 季节性气候预报,包括ENSO预测,为积极的流行病控制和灾害准备提供了机会.
- 将卫生规划从纯粹的空间转变为包括时间风险管理对于有效的资源定位至关重要.
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