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探测人类对北美气候的影响
David J Karoly1, Karl Braganza, Peter A Stott
1School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA. dkaroly@ou.edu
概括
20世纪北美地区的气候变化被用地表温度变化来研究. 从1950年至1999年,变暖不太可能是自然的,与人类引起的温室气体增加保持一致.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 研究大规模的表面温度变化对于了解气候变化至关重要.
- 北美20世纪的气候模式为气候变化研究提供了一个关键区域.
研究的目的:
- 用表面温度变化指数分析北美20世纪的气候变化.
- 确定观察到的温度趋势的驱动因素,区分自然变化和人为影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了几种大规模表面温度变化的指数.
- 采用多种气候模型来模拟观察到的指数变化.
- 将观测数据的趋势与气候模型模拟进行比较.
主要成果:
- 气候模型成功模拟了温度指数的观察到的变化.
- 从1950年到1999年的北美温度变化不太可能仅仅是由于自然气候变化.
- 从1900年到1949年观察到的变暖可能主要是由自然气候变化驱动的.
结论:
- 观察到的1950-1999年北美变暖趋势与包括人为强迫 (温室气体,硫酸盐气溶) 在内的模拟相一致.
- 这些发现表明,人类活动在20世纪下半叶显著影响了北美气候.
- 自然气候变化很可能解释了20世纪上半叶观察到的大部分变暖.
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