自20世纪50年代以来,南极海冰减少的冰芯证据
Mark A J Curran1, Tas D van Ommen, Vin I Morgan
1Department of the Environment and Heritage, Australian Antarctic Division, and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, Private Bag 80, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia. mark.curran@utas.edu.au
自1950年以来,南极海冰面积已经下降了20%,尽管近几十年来不清楚的变暖信号. 来自冰芯的甲硫酸 (MSA) 揭示了这一趋势,显示了使短期分析复杂化的周期变化.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 南极研究南极研究
背景情况:
- 仪器记录显示没有明确的南极海冰变暖趋势.
- 南极洲沿海地区展现了观测上的变暖证据.
- 卫星海冰面积 (SIE) 数据仅限于最近几十年.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究长期南极海冰面积 (SIE) 变化.
- 为了将甲硫酸 (MSA) 度与SIE相关联.
- 使用冰芯数据重建历史的SIE趋势.
主要方法:
- 法律圆顶冰芯MSA和卫星衍生的SIE (80°E140°E) 之间的相关性分析.
- 将MSA度与仪器SIE数据进行校准.
- 应用校准的MSA数据来重建长期SIE (1841年至1995年).
主要成果:
- 在MSA和SIE之间发现了显著的相关性 (P < 0.002).
- 重建的数据表明,自大约1950年以来,SIE下降了20%.
- 南极海冰面积显示出显著的周期性变化 (约. 11年的时间).
结论:
- 甲硫酸 (MSA) 作为南极海冰范围的可靠代理.
- 自20世纪中叶以来,南极海冰的数量大幅下降.
- 在SIE的周期性变化可以掩盖较短的观测记录中的长期趋势.
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