类似厄尔尼诺现象对火山强迫的反应的代理证据
J Brad Adams1, Michael E Mann, Caspar M Ammann
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Clark Hall, Charlottesville, Virginia 22903, USA. jba7g@virginia.edu
Nature
|November 25, 2003
概括
爆炸性火山喷发显著增加了厄尔尼诺气候事件的可能性. 这项研究提供了强有力的证据,将火山活动与厄尔尼诺/南方振荡 (ENSO) 现象联系起来.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 火山学 火山学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 过去的研究表明,火山爆发和厄尔尼诺现象之间存在联系,但这种联系仍在争论中.
- 了解气候强迫对于预测未来的气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查火山爆发活动与厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件之间的关系.
- 为火山活动对热带太平洋大气系统的影响提供实证支持.
主要方法:
- 利用了两种不同的古气候重建厄尔尼诺活动.
- 采用了两个独立的,基于代理的1649年至今的爆炸性火山活动时间表.
- 分析了多年的类似厄尔尼诺现象对火山强迫的反应.
主要成果:
- 经过几个世纪的爆炸性热带火山强迫,表现出显著的,多年来的厄尔尼诺的反应.
- 发现火山爆发的概率大约是El Niño事件在接下来的冬天的两倍.
- 在过去的爆炸性火山活动和ENSO行为之间建立了强有力的经验联系.
结论:
- 爆炸性火山活动是ENSO事件的重要驱动因素.
- 这些发现增强了我们对外部辐射强迫如何影响热带太平洋的理解.
- 这项研究对预测气候对自然和人为因素的反应有影响.
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