进化在传染病出现中的作用
Rustom Antia1, Roland R Regoes, Jacob C Koella
1Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA. rantia@emory.edu
Nature
|December 12, 2003
概括
新型传染病的出现是因为像艾滋病毒这样的病原体进化起来,很容易在人与人之间传播. 生态变化可能会增加这种风险,增加流行病的可能性. 这项研究表明,即使是传播的小幅增加,也可以显著提高出现概率.
科学领域:
- * 动物传播疾病的出现.
- * 病原体的进化过程
- * 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- *新的传染病,如艾滋病毒,和SARS,从动物水库中不可预测地出现.
- *生态变化可以促进病原体从动物传播给人类.
- *了解病原体传播动态对于预测和预防流行病至关重要.
研究的目的:
- *研究生态变化,病原体进化和新型传染病的出现之间的关系.
- *分析基本生殖数 (R(0) 的增加如何影响疾病出现的概率.
- * 量化二次感染增加对流行病潜力的影响.
主要方法:
- * 病原体传播动态的理论建模.
- * 分析影响病原体进化的因素,以增加传染性.
- *模拟易感人群中疾病的传播.
主要成果:
- *生态变化可以增加病原体进入人类和持续传播的机会.
- * 即使是R的亚流行性增加也会显著提高二次感染的数量.
- *病原体演变为R(0) > 1的概率明显增加,促进疾病的出现.
结论:
- *病原体向增强的人与人传播的进化是新型传染病出现的关键驱动因素.
- *生态干扰在创造有利于动物感染溢出和流行病传播的条件方面发挥着关键作用.
- *即使低于流行病值,传播潜力增加也会显著增加未来疫情爆发的风险.
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