温度变化增加在欧洲夏季热浪中的作用
Christoph Schär1, Pier Luigi Vidale, Daniel Lüthi
1Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland. schaer@env.ethz.ch
Nature
|January 13, 2004
概括
全球变暖正在增加热浪,但2003年的欧洲热浪是非常罕见的. 增加的温度变化,而不仅仅是更高的平均值,可能解释极端热事件.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在过去的150年里,全球和半球温度显著升温.
- 这种变暖趋势与热浪的频率增加有关.
- 目前的模型将热浪解释为温度分布的变化,而不是变化增加.
研究的目的:
- 调查现有模型无法解释2003年中欧热浪的失败.
- 提出和测试一个新的框架,涉及增加的温度变化,以解释极端高温事件.
- 在温室气体度增加的情况下模拟未来的欧洲气候变化.
主要方法:
- 分析仪器和重建的温度数据.
- 统计建模以评估极端高温事件的可能性.
- 根据未来温室气体场景的区域气候建模.
主要成果:
- 根据以前的模型,2003年中欧热浪在统计学上是极其不可能的.
- 模拟表明,在未来的欧洲气候中,温度变化可能增加多达100%.
- 温度变化的增加在中欧和东欧最为明显.
结论:
- 简单的平均温度变化不足以解释2003年欧洲热浪等极端热情事件.
- 温度变化增加,加上变暖,是理解和预测极端高温的关键因素.
- 未来的气候情景表明,温度变化显著增加,特别是在中欧和东欧.
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