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气候学 (通信产生的):农村土地利用变化和气候变化

Kevin E Trenberth¹

¹National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA. trenbert@ucar.edu

|January 16, 2004

概括

城市化和土地使用变化影响美国的气候. 然而,其他因素,如云和湿度的变化,加上农村土地.

科学领域:

气候学气候学气候学
环境科学环境科学
气象学天气学

背景情况:

这项研究考察了城市化和土地利用变化对美国气候的影响.
它批评了Kalnay和Cai的研究方法,该方法使用NCEP/NCAR再分析 (NNR) 将气候影响归因于人为变化.
国家自然资源局的数据没有考虑城市化和土地利用的影响,这些影响是Kalnay和Cai的结论的基础.

研究的目的:

重新评估城市化和土地利用变化对美国气候的影响.
调查因人为影响而导致的温度趋势的替代解释.
评估使用NNR数据用于气候变化归因的有效性.

主要方法:

将NCEP/NCAR50年重复分析 (NNR) 的表面温度与观测到的空间站表面温度进行比较.
分析未包括在NNR数据集中的潜在混因素.
审查农村土地利用变化对气候影响的直接估计.

主要成果:

NNR数据可能忽略了重要的气候因素,包括云层和表面湿度的变化.
直接估计表明,由于日光反射增加,农村土地利用变化产生了降温影响.
虽然城市热岛效应得到证实,但它们相对于其他因素的贡献需要进一步考虑.

结论:

在美国观察到的温度变化可能受到城市化和土地利用变化以外的因素的影响.
云层和表面湿度的变化是气候趋势的可信替代解释.
农村土地利用变化似乎具有降温效应,与归因于城市化的变暖形成鲜明对比.

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