发展心房动的终身风险:弗雷明汉心脏研究
Donald M Lloyd-Jones1, Thomas J Wang, Eric P Leip
1Department of Preventive Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, 680 N Lake Shore Drive, Suite 1102, Chicago, IL, 60611, USA. dlj@northwestern.edu
Circulation
|August 18, 2004
概括
心房动 (AF) 的终身风险很高,约有四分之一的40岁及以上的人受到影响. 这种常见的心律障碍对公众健康构成重大挑战,需要进一步研究预防和治疗.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 心房动 (AF) 是一种普遍的心律失常症,与显著的发病率和死亡率有关.
- 估计发展AF的终身风险对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 以前的研究没有全面评估AF的终身风险.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计患上心房动 (AF) 的终身风险,直到95岁.
- 评估这个风险在初始评估时根据年龄如何变化.
- 为了确定AF的终身风险,独立于其他心血管疾病.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自弗雷明汉心脏研究的数据,包括40岁或以上的没有AF的参与者.
- 采用竞争风险分析,将没有AF的死亡视为竞争事件.
- 从1968年到1999年,追踪了3999名男性和4726名女性,记录了AF发病率和死亡率.
主要成果:
- 在40岁时,估计的AF终身风险为男性26.0%,女性23.0%.
- 即使在年龄较大时,终身AF风险仍然很大 (例如,男性在80岁时为22.7%,女性为21.6%).
- 除了以前或同时患有心力衰竭或心肌梗塞的参与者之外,终身AF风险约为16%.
结论:
- 在40岁及以上的个体中,发展AF的终身风险约为四分之一.
- 显著的比例 (每6人中就有1人) 即使没有先前的心力衰竭或心肌梗塞,也会发展为AF.
- 高度的终身风险突出了AF作为一个主要的公共卫生问题,强调了改善预防和治疗的必要性.
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