从噪音数据重建过去的气候
Hans von Storch1, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M Jones
1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de
概括
过去千年北半球 (NH) 温度重建可能低估了百年变化. 气候模型模拟表明,实际过去的温度变化至少是以前重建的两倍.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候建模 气候建模
- 统计分析 统计分析
背景情况:
- 过去千年北半球 (NH) 温度的实证重建显示了小幅变化和最近的变暖.
- 多代理记录通常用于重建过去的气候变化.
研究的目的:
- 测试经验重建方法在多十年和百年时间尺度上的技巧.
- 为了评估从多代理记录中得出的过去NH温度变化的准确性.
主要方法:
- 过去1000年的合大气和海洋模型模拟作为气候替代品.
- 从模拟的网点温度数据中生成的理想的代理记录,添加了统计噪声.
- 基于回归的方法用于分析百年温度变化.
主要成果:
- 使用的基于回归的方法低估了NH温度的百年变化.
- 模拟的温度变化表明经验重建可能错过了过去显著的气候波动.
结论:
- 现有的经验重建可能显著低估了过去百年级NH温度变化的幅度.
- 过去的NH温度变化可能至少是当前重建所显示的两倍.
相关概念视频
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Precipitation Gravimetry
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
Variation of Atmospheric Pressure
Change in atmospheric pressure with height is particularly interesting. The decrease in atmospheric pressure with increasing altitude is due to the decreasing gravitational force per unit area as we move away from the surface of the earth.
Assuming the air temperature is constant at a given altitude and that the ideal gas law of thermodynamics describes the atmosphere to a good approximation, one can find the variation of atmospheric pressure with height.
Let p(y) be the atmospheric pressure at...
Assuming the air temperature is constant at a given altitude and that the ideal gas law of thermodynamics describes the atmosphere to a good approximation, one can find the variation of atmospheric pressure with height.
Let p(y) be the atmospheric pressure at...
Measurement of Air Content in Concrete
Air content measurement in concrete is critical for ensuring structural integrity and durability of concrete structures, especially in environments prone to severe weather conditions. Accurate air content analysis optimizes concrete's resistance to freeze-thaw cycles and enhances its workability and strength. Several methods are standardized under ASTM guidelines to measure the air content in fresh concrete, each suitable for different concrete types and conditions.
The pressure method,...
The pressure method,...
Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...


