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Investigating the Relationship between Sea Surface Chlorophyll and Major Features of the South China Sea with Satellite Information
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从噪音数据重建过去的气候.

Hans von Storch1, Eduardo Zorita, Julie M Jones

  • 1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht 21502, Germany. storch@gkss.de

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 2, 2004
PubMed
概括
此摘要是机器生成的。

过去千年北半球 (NH) 温度重建可能低估了百年变化. 气候模型模拟表明,实际过去的温度变化至少是以前重建的两倍.

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科学领域:

  • 古气候学 古气候学
  • 气候建模 气候建模
  • 统计分析 统计分析

背景情况:

  • 过去千年北半球 (NH) 温度的实证重建显示了小幅变化和最近的变暖.
  • 多代理记录通常用于重建过去的气候变化.

研究的目的:

  • 测试经验重建方法在多十年和百年时间尺度上的技巧.
  • 为了评估从多代理记录中得出的过去NH温度变化的准确性.

主要方法:

  • 过去1000年的合大气和海洋模型模拟作为气候替代品.
  • 从模拟的网点温度数据中生成的理想的代理记录,添加了统计噪声.
  • 基于回归的方法用于分析百年温度变化.

主要成果:

  • 使用的基于回归的方法低估了NH温度的百年变化.
  • 模拟的温度变化表明经验重建可能错过了过去显著的气候波动.

结论:

  • 现有的经验重建可能显著低估了过去百年级NH温度变化的幅度.
  • 过去的NH温度变化可能至少是当前重建所显示的两倍.