印度结核病的季节性:这是真的吗?它告诉我们什么?
Lorna E Thorpe1, Thomas R Frieden, Kayla F Laserson
1Division of Tuberculosis Elimination, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta GA, USA. lthorpe@health.nyc.gov
Lancet (London, England)
|November 3, 2004
概括
印度北部结核病诊断显示出明显的季节性趋势,春季达到峰值,冬季下降. 这种模式在儿童中最为明显,表明最近结核病传播率的波动.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 印度承受着全球严重的结核病 (TB) 负担.
- 国家结核病控制计划提供基于人口的数据进行分析.
- 了解结核病趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查印度各地结核病诊断的季节性趋势.
- 分析来自已建立控制计划的地区的结核病例数据.
- 为了确定结核病季节性的地理差异.
主要方法:
- 利用了稳定控制计划的地区 (11500万人口) 的结核病登记处的季度报告.
- 在新的涂抹阳性结核病例中评估季节性模式.
- 排除了寻求健康的一般行为作为一个混因素.
主要成果:
- 北印度表现出明显的季节性趋势:从4月到6月的诊断峰值,从10月到12月的低点.
- 印度南部没有显著的季节性.
- 在高峰季节,这一比例从每10万人中57人变化到低谷季节,每10万人中46人变化.
- 季节性在儿童结核病病例中最为明显.
结论:
- 印度北部的结核病诊断表现出显著的季节性,可能与最近传播的变化有关.
- 观察到的模式,特别是在儿童中,需要进一步调查传播动态.
- 调查结果突显出需要地理定制的结核病控制策略.
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