大气科学:南极振荡指数的早期峰值
Julie M Jones1, Martin Widmann
1Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany. jones@gkss.de
Nature
|November 19, 2004
概括
南极振荡 (南半球环状模式) 显示了自然气候的变化. 历史数据揭示了近几十年之前的显著正面和负面趋势,这表明自然因素影响了这种大气循环模式.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 古气候学 古气候学
背景情况:
- 南极振荡 (AO) 或南半球环状模式 (SAM) 是一个重要的大气循环模式.
- 近几十年来,与臭氧层消耗和温室气体相关的 AO 趋势呈现出积极的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为了重建20世纪的AO指数.
- 调查历史的AO变化和趋势.
- 评估自然强迫对AO的影响.
主要方法:
- 澳大利亚夏季AO指数的重建.
- 20世纪海平面压力数据的分析.
主要成果:
- 大量的积极的AO指数值和趋势发生在1960年左右.
- 在此期间,出现了显著的负面趋势.
- 这些历史模式早于主要的人类影响.
结论:
- 自然强迫因素显著影响南极振荡.
- 内部气候系统机制在AO变化中起着至关重要的作用.
- 澳大利亚的气候变化不仅仅是由最近的人为变化所驱动的.
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