2003年入侵伊拉克之前和之后的死亡率:集群抽样调查
Les Roberts1, Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield
1Center for International Emergency Disaster and Refugee Studies, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. les@a-znet.com
Lancet (London, England)
|November 24, 2004
概括
2003年伊拉克入侵导致死亡率大幅增加,暴力成为死亡的主要原因. 保守的估计表明,超过10万多人死亡,主要是由于联军空袭.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 冲突研究 冲突研究
背景情况:
- 2003年美国和英国军队入侵伊拉克,标志着一个重要的地缘政治事件.
- 评估冲突对平民人口的影响对于人道主义和政策考虑至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较伊拉克在2003年入侵之前和之后的死亡率.
- 量化过剩的死亡人数,并确定与入侵和占领有关的死亡的主要原因.
主要方法:
- 2004年9月,在整个伊拉克进行了集群抽样调查.
- 自2002年1月以来,对30个家庭的33个集群进行了关于家庭组成,出生和死亡情况的采访.
- 通过将入侵后的17.8个月与入侵前的14.6个月进行比较来评估死亡风险.
主要成果:
- 与入侵前的时期相比,入侵后的整体死亡风险增加了2.5倍.
- 除了法卢贾集群外,死亡风险是1.5倍高;估计有98,000人超额死亡发生在法卢贾以外.
- 暴力成为入侵后死亡的主要原因,与入侵前时期相比,风险增加了58倍;联盟部队被认为是暴力死亡的主要原因,主要影响妇女和儿童.
结论:
- 自2003年入侵伊拉克以来,估计有10万或更多的过度死亡事件发生.
- 暴力,主要归因于联军空袭,是过度死亡的主要驱动因素.
- 即使在暴力冲突地区,公共卫生数据的收集也是可行的,这些发现需要采取措施减少空袭造成的平民伤亡.
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