人类对2003年欧洲热浪的贡献
Peter A Stott1, D A Stone, M R Allen
1Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk
Nature
|December 4, 2004
概括
2003年欧洲热浪造成了许多人死亡,但由人类引起的气候变化造成的热浪的可能性至少增加了两倍. 这项研究量化了由于温室气体排放导致夏季极端炎热的风险增加.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 2003年欧洲夏季异常炎热,导致法国,德国和意大利的与炎热有关的死亡率显著.
- 将特定的天气事件确定性地归因于气候变化是复杂的,因为极端事件可以自然发生.
研究的目的:
- 估计人类活动,特别是温室气体度增加对2003年欧洲热浪风险的贡献.
- 评估人为气候变化对欧洲大陆夏季极端气温的可能性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用概率框架来评估人类活动对极端天气事件的影响.
- 根据夏季平均温度定义了一个温度值,在2003年超过,但自1851年以来没有在任何前一年超过.
主要成果:
- 人类的影响,主要是通过增加温室气体度,估计至少使热浪超过定义温度值的风险增加了一倍.
- 该研究表明,这种风险增加的可能性非常高 (信心水平>90%).
结论:
- 人为气候变化显著增加了极端高温事件的可能性,如2003年欧洲热浪.
- 人类活动已经明显改变了恶劣天气的风险格局,这对公共卫生和气候适应战略产生了影响.
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