东太平洋上升转变断层的前岩层序列和短期地震可预测性
Jeffrey J McGuire1, Margaret S Boettcher, Thomas H Jordan
1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543-1541, USA. jmcguire@whoi.edu
Nature
|March 26, 2005
概括
东太平洋起转变断层表现出独特的地震行为,频繁出现前震和少数余震. 这种模式表明,缓慢滑动的瞬态可能会引发地震,有助于对变形断层的地震预测.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 板块构造学是一种板块构造学.
背景情况:
- 东太平洋起转变断层具有很高的滑动率 (>10厘米/年),主要是无地震滑动,以及适度的最大地震强度 (~6.5).
- 大陆冲击滑动断层通常与海洋转变断层相比,具有不同的前震到余震比率.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究东太平洋起转变断层的地震特征.
- 为了将它们的地震性模式与大陆的冲滑断层进行比较.
- 探索观察到的模式对地震触发模型和可预测性的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 的水声阵列记录的分析.
- 对前震和余震率的比较分析.
- 基于观测到的地震性的地震触发模型的评估.
主要成果:
- 东太平洋上升转换断层显示,余震数量很少,前震率很高.
- 观察到的前震对余震的比率挑战了传统的地震触发模型.
- 在特定的时空窗口内,Foreshock序列允许回顾性预测地震 (M≥5.4),并获得高概率增益.
结论:
- 东太平洋起的变形断层地震性与大陆断层不同.
- 一个涉及缓慢滑动瞬态触发地震的模型解释了观察到的模式和可预测性.
- 这项研究提供了关于无地震板运动适应和在变形断层上产生地震的机制的见解.
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