关于明天加利福尼亚州地震的实时预测
Matthew C Gerstenberger1, Stefan Wiemer, Lucile M Jones
1US Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson Ave, Pasadena, California 91106, USA. mattg@usgs.gov
Nature
|May 20, 2005
概括
地震学家现在可以更准确地预测地震余震. 新模型预测,在24小时内,整个加利福尼亚州都有可能发生强烈的地震,这有助于公共安全.
科学领域:
- 地震科学 地震科学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 地震预测缺乏可靠的决定性前体.
- 目前的依赖时间的地震概率是基于通用的集群模型.
- 现有的预测缺乏位置特异性,并且不适合单个地震序列.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个更准确,更局部,更有用的地震预测模型.
- 在强烈的地面震动方面重新构建地震概率.
- 将时间独立的故障数据与时间依赖的集群模型集成.
主要方法:
- 结合了一个独立于时间的地震发生模型 (断层数据,历史地震) 与先进的局部依赖时间的地震集群模型.
- 开发了一种新的地震风险建模方法.
- 重构了预测,以预测强烈地震的可能性.
主要成果:
- 创建了一个依赖时间的地图,说明在未来24小时内在加利福尼亚州任何地方发生强大地震的概率.
- 该模型为时间依赖的地震危险提供了更好的理解.
- 改善了对公众,应急规划人员和媒体的预测实用性.
结论:
- 开发的模型在地震危险评估方面取得了重大进展.
- 这种方法提高了地震预测的实际应用.
- 增加对地震集群的理解,提高了对强烈地震的预测能力.
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