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人类引起的气候变暖透到世界海洋中
Tim P Barnett1, David W Pierce, Krishna M Achutarao
1Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA. tbarnett@ucsd.edu
概括
40年来海洋变暖显示出人类造成的复杂信号. 这种人为气候变化在海洋温度数据中很明显,不能用自然因素来解释.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 在过去的40年里,世界海洋吸收了大量的热量.
- 了解海洋变暖的驱动因素对于评估气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查观察到的海洋变暖信号的起源.
- 为了确定变暖是否归因于人为因素或自然变化.
主要方法:
- 分析了过去40年的海洋温度数据.
- 观察到的变暖模式与两个气候模型的模拟结果进行比较.
- 对自然气候变化和外部强迫 (太阳能,火山) 的评估.
主要成果:
- 在海洋中发现了一个复杂的变暖信号,具有显著的垂直结构.
- 观察到的变暖不能用自然的内部气候变化或太阳/火山强迫来解释.
- 两种由人类制造的气候模型成功模拟了观察到的变暖模式.
结论:
- 观察到的海洋变暖信号是人为的 (人为的).
- 这一结论是强大的,尽管潜在的观察抽样问题和模型的不确定性.
- 积极变化与表面强迫相结合,推动了观察到的变暖模式,需要认真考虑未来气候变化预测.
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