非洲南部沙漠沙丘系统的重新动员到21世纪全球变暖
David S G Thomas1, Melanie Knight, Giles F S Wiggs
1School of Geography and Environment, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. david.thomas@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Nature
|July 1, 2005
概括
全球变暖将在2099年之前显著增加非洲的沙漠沙丘活动. 气候变化影响沙丘的侵蚀性和侵蚀性,导致沙丘的广泛复兴和生态系统和人类系统的潜在破坏.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地质形态学 地质形态学
背景情况:
- 沙漠沙丘覆盖了地球5%的土地和非洲30%的土地,但气候变化的影响尚不清楚.
- 萨赫勒地区和南非地区的不活跃的沙丘系统支持重要的牧场和农业活动.
- 沙丘动态取决于表面侵蚀性 (植被,水分) 和大气侵蚀性 (风能) 之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 评估卡拉哈里沙丘沙丘在21世纪全球变暖下潜在的未来活动.
- 为了研究气候变化如何改变沙丘动态和重新激活.
- 在不同的排放场景中预测沙丘活动.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自三个全球气候模型的模拟.
- 修改和改进了已建立的沙丘流动性指数,以纳入气候模型数据.
- 分析了基于可侵蚀性和侵蚀性预测变化的月度沙丘活动.
主要成果:
- 模拟到2039年在卡拉哈里南部的沙丘领域显著增强沙丘活动.
- 预计到2069年,东部和北部沙丘领域的活动将会增加.
- 到2099年,在南非 (从南非到安哥拉和赞比亚) 地区,无论排放情况如何,都会出现高度动态的沙丘场.
结论:
- 二十一世纪气候变暖可能会导致沙漠沙丘系统的显著重新激活.
- 沙丘活动增加对依赖稳定的沙丘环境的现有牧场和农业系统构成风险.
- 未来的气候变化需要采取积极的措施,以了解和管理潜在的沙丘系统转型.
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