在过去的30年里,热带气旋的破坏性越来越大
1Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA. emanuel@texmex.mit.edu
Nature
|August 2, 2005
概括
自20世纪70年代以来,风的破坏性潜力显著增加,原因是风暴寿命更长,强度更大,与海面温度上升和全球变暖相关.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 气候模型预测,随着全球变暖,风强度增加.
- 之前的趋势检测集中在风频率上,没有显示显著变化.
- 风的破坏性是沿海影响评估的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 定义和分析潜在风破坏性的新指数.
- 调查自20世纪70年代中期以来风耗电趋势.
- 为了将风活动趋势与气候信号 (如海面温度和全球变暖) 相关联起来.
主要方法:
- 一个风耗电指数的开发.
- 从20世纪70年代中期开始对历史风数据的分析.
- 破坏性指数与热带海洋表面温度之间的相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪70年代中期以来,风破坏性指数出现了显著的上升趋势.
- 这一趋势归因于风暴的强度和持续时间的增加.
- 破坏性指数与热带海面温度有很强的相关性,反映了气候变化信号.
结论:
- 风的破坏性潜力正在增加,与全球气温上升有关.
- 未来的变暖可能会进一步升级热带气旋的破坏性潜力.
- 结合人口增长,这一趋势表明,21世纪风相关损失将大幅增加.
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