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New Variations for Strategy Set-shifting in the Rat
Published on: January 23, 2017
多重创新价值和战略平衡
1Department of International Relations, Australian National University, Canberra.
Nature
|May 2, 1970
概括
美国和苏联可以将导弹发射器升级为多个弹头,而不会破坏核平衡. 这种定量分析表明,尽管导弹技术的技术进步,但战略稳定性仍在保持.
科学领域:
- 战略研究 战略研究
- 核威理论 核威理论
- 国际安全 国际安全
背景情况:
- 冷战时期,人们专注于超级大国之间的核平衡和战略稳定.
- 导弹技术的进步,如多个独立目标可重返入境车辆 (MIRV),引发了人们对核武库不断升级的担忧.
- 以前的分析经常假定MIRV部署具有破坏稳定的效果.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估用MIRVs取代单弹头导弹发射器对核平衡的影响.
- 要确定这样的技术转变是否会本质上破坏核大国之间的战略平衡.
- 为导弹现代化及其对全球安全的影响提供数据驱动的视角.
主要方法:
- 一种使用游戏理论和战略建模的定量治疗方法.
- 对美国和苏联的核力量结构和弹头数量的分析.
- 模拟涉及部署多个独立目标重返入境车辆 (MIRV) 的场景.
主要成果:
- 该研究的定量处理表明,核平衡不一定会因采用MIRVs而破坏稳定.
- 用MIRVs取代单弹头发射器可以在现有的战略稳定框架内适应.
- 调查结果表明,技术升级不会自动导致战略平衡的丧失.
结论:
- 用MIRV对导弹库的现代化本身并不威胁到核平衡.
- 即使核发射系统在技术上取得了重大进展,也可以保持战略稳定.
- 关于导弹部署的政策决策应该考虑定量评估,而不是假设固有的不稳定.
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