1960年智利发生的巨大地震的前身
Marco Cisternas1, Brian F Atwater, Fernando Torrejón
1Facultad de Agronomía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Casilla 4-D, Quillota, Chile. marco.cisternas@ucv.cl
Nature
|September 16, 2005
概括
自上次地震以来的时间并不可靠地预测下一次地震.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 古代地震学 (paleoseismology) 是一种古地震学.
- 构造学 构造学 构造学 构造学
背景情况:
- 人们普遍认为,地震间较长的间隔会导致后续更大的滑坡,这一假设受到质疑.
- 这种预测器在冲击滑动断层的大型地震和1960年智利地震 (M9.5) 中被证明是不成功的.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究纳斯卡和南美构造板块边界上巨大的地震的复发间隔.
- 为了测试自上次事件以来的时间作为巨大的地震强度的预测器的有效性.
主要方法:
- 对古地震记录的分析,包括埋藏的土壤和沙层,在河口.
- 在过去的两千年里,构造构造沉降和海洪水事件的重建.
主要成果:
- 1960年智利地震发生后的时间间隔为400年,而不是之前所说的123年.
- 古地震数据表明,巨大的地震之间的长时间间隔 (几个世纪) 是这个断层的典型特征.
- 1737年和1837年的较小地震可能并没有完全释放累积的构造压力.
结论:
- 自上次地震以来的时间是巨大的地震大小的不可靠预测指标.
- 在这个板块边界上发生的巨大的地震的复发间隔跨越了几个世纪.
- 过去较小的地震事件可能不会显著减少未来大破裂的压力.
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