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生态系统服务供应和欧洲对全球变化的脆弱性
Dagmar Schröter1, Wolfgang Cramer, Rik Leemans
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. dagmar.schroeter@gmail.com
概括
全球变化对欧洲的生态系统服务产生了重大影响. 虽然一些变化提供了机会,但许多变化增加了脆弱性,原因是土壤肥力和水供应等基本服务的下降.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 全球变化对人类福祉至关重要的生态系统服务产生了深远的影响.
- 了解未来的生态系统服务供应对于适应和减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估21世纪气候和土地利用变化对整个欧洲生态系统服务供应的影响.
- 确定最容易受到全球变化的地区和服务.
主要方法:
- 利用一套生态系统模型进行欧洲范围的评估.
- 纳入了未来气候和土地利用变化的各种场景.
主要成果:
- 由于气候和土地利用的变化,生态系统服务供应预计将发生重大变化.
- 积极的趋势包括森林面积和生产率的增加,为生物能源提供了机会.
- 负面趋势包括土壤肥力下降,水资源供应和火灾风险增加,特别是在地中海和山区.
结论:
- 欧洲在全球变化下面临着生态系统服务的复杂转变.
- 特定地区的脆弱性加剧,需要有针对性的保护和管理工作.
- 为确保未来的生态系统服务提供,平衡机遇与风险至关重要.
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