预防慢性疾病:我们能挽救多少人的生命?
Kathleen Strong1, Colin Mathers, Stephen Leeder
1Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion, WHO, 20 Avenue Appia, CH-1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. strongk@who.int
Lancet (London, England)
|November 1, 2005
概括
在全球范围内,心脏病和癌症等慢性疾病每年造成数百万人的死亡,不成比例地影响低收入国家. 慢性病死亡率每年减少2%可以在2015年之前预防3600万例死亡.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 预防医学 预防医学
背景情况:
- 预计包括心脏病,中风和癌症在内的慢性疾病将在2005年造成3500万人的死亡.
- 这些死亡的绝大多数 (80%) 将发生在低收入和中等收入国家,在30-69岁的成年人中死亡率更高.
- 与高收入国家相比,低收入和中等收入国家中,这些可预防疾病的死亡率明显高于高收入国家.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的全球目标,以减少慢性疾病的死亡率.
- 将预防和控制工作集中在国际卫生问题上.
- 估计慢性疾病死亡率每年减少2%的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用2005年和2015年因各种原因而导致的死亡的全球预测.
- 分析全球人口,选定的国家和世界银行收入群体的数据.
- 计算从拟议目标中获得的潜在避免死亡和生命年数.
主要成果:
- 慢性病死亡率每年减少2%可以在2015年之前避免3600万人的死亡.
- 这一目标预计将在2006年至2015年期间增加约5亿年的生命.
- 大多数避免死亡和增加寿命的预期是在低收入和中等收入国家,近一半受益于70岁以下的个人.
结论:
- 实施一个全球目标,每年将慢性疾病死亡率降低2%,这是可行的和有影响力的.
- 这一战略为国际卫生提供了巨大的好处,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家.
- 拟议的目标解决了一个关键的全球健康挑战,具有拯救生命和改善寿命的巨大潜力.
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