1,470年冰川气候周期的可能太阳起源在合模型中得到证明
Holger Braun1, Marcus Christl, Stefan Rahmstorf
1Heidelberg Academy of Sciences, c/o Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 229, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany. holger.braun@iup.uni-heidelberg.de
Nature
|November 11, 2005
概括
快速的气候变化被称为Dansgaard-Oeschger事件,在最后一个冰河时代,每1470年发生一次. 这些气候周期很可能是由太阳强迫引发的,尽管没有1470年的太阳周期.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 太阳能强迫是太阳能强迫的
背景情况:
- 北大西洋的古气候记录显示了快速的气候振荡,称为Dansgaard-Oeschger事件,在晚期冰川时期的周期为1,470年.
- 这些事件的假设包括内部气候系统振荡和外部太阳强迫,尽管1470年的太阳周期仍然未被检测到.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究太阳强迫的潜力来解释Dansgaard-Oeschger事件的1470年周期性.
- 使用气候模型探索冰川快速气候变化背后的机制.
主要方法:
- 在冰川条件下使用中等复杂度的气候模型.
- 强迫模型定期向北大西洋输入淡水,模拟87年和210年的太阳周期.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功模拟了类似于Dansgaard-Oeschger事件的快速气候变化,间隔1470年.
- 1,470年的周期性是由于较短的太阳周期的叠加而产生的,这些周期与非线性动力学和热环循环相互作用.
- 这些事件在全新世纪条件下并没有重现.
结论:
- 冰川的1470年气候周期可能是由太阳强迫引发的,即使没有直接的1470年太阳周期.
- 多个太阳周期的相互作用和气候系统固有的非线性对于产生这些长期气候模式至关重要.
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