气候变暖对以雪为主地区水资源的潜在影响
T P Barnett1, J C Adam, D P Lettenmaier
1Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093, USA. timdotbarnett@ucsd.edu
Nature
|November 18, 2005
概括
全球变暖将改变水资源的可用性. 气候模型预测较早的融雪和减少的积雪,将河流流量转移到冬季,并在夏季和秋季造成世界人口的六分之一以上的缺水.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型始终预测由于温室气体度上升而导致近地表面变暖.
- 气温上升会影响水文循环,特别是在依赖融雪和融冰供水的地区.
研究的目的:
- 分析气候变暖对水文循环和未来水资源供应的影响.
- 突出对依赖雪和冰融化的地区的影响.
主要方法:
- 对气候模型关于温度趋势的预测进行分析.
- 评估降雨模式的变化 (降雪与降雨) 和融雪的时间.
- 评估了河流流失模式所造成的变化.
主要成果:
- 温暖的气温导致冬季降水减少,降雪和早春融雪.
- 河流流量峰值正在从夏季/秋季转移到冬季/早春.
- 不足够的储水能力将导致冬季大量流失到海洋.
结论:
- 气候变暖带来的水文变化对未来的水资源供应构成严重风险.
- 由于这些预测的变化,超过六分之一的全球人口面临潜在的水资源短缺问题.
- 对于脆弱地区的水资源管理,迫切需要采取适应战略.
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