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在气候变化中,河流流动和水资源的全球趋势模式
P C D Milly1, K A Dunne, A V Vecchia
1US Geological Survey, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, PO Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey 08542, USA. cmilly@usgs.gov
Nature
|November 18, 2005
概括
气候变暖将改变全球的水资源供应,在某些地区增加排水量,在其他地区减少排水量. 到2050年,这些变化将对经济和生态系统产生重大影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学 水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球水的可用性对人类健康,经济和生态系统至关重要.
- 由于温度对水蒸气的影响,气候变暖对全球水循环产生重大影响.
- 预测区域水气候变化是复杂的,预计降水和下水的变化.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候模型在模拟历史流量变化的技巧.
- 为了预测未来由于气候变暖而导致的区域排水模式的变化.
- 了解改变水的可用性对经济和生态系统的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了12个气候模型的组合.
- 与观察到的20世纪多十年的流量变化对比,验证了模型性能.
- 预计到2050年,未来的排水流量将会发生变化.
主要成果:
- 气候模型在模拟历史流动模式方面表现出了统计学上显著的技能.
- 预计赤道非洲东部,拉普拉塔盆地和高度北美和欧亚大陆的下水量将增加10-40%.
- 预计南非,南欧,中东和中度西北美洲的下游水量将减少10-30%.
结论:
- 气候模型提供了区域流量变化的可靠预测.
- 预计到2050年,可持续水资源的可用性将发生重大变化.
- 这些水气候变化将对区域经济和生态产生重大影响.
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