超级传播和个体变异对疾病出现的影响
J O Lloyd-Smith1, S J Schreiber, P E Kopp
1Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, 140 Mulford Hall, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-3114, USA. jls@nature.berkeley.edu
Nature
|November 18, 2005
概括
个体感染率的变化显著影响疾病的传播,使得超级传播事件变得普遍. 针对性的控制措施比管理流行病的全民策略更有效.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 人口层面的分析通常使用平均值,掩盖了个体感染率的变化.
- 基本的生殖数,R(0),表示每个病例的平均感染,但可以隐藏显著的异质性.
- 超级传播事件,其中少数个体感染了许多其他人,是观察到的,但他们的驱动器是不清楚的.
研究的目的:
- 分析个体感染性变异对疾病出现的影响.
- 为了将基于平均值的模型与那些考虑感染性异质性的模型进行比较.
- 探索对疾病控制策略的影响.
主要方法:
- 综合理论和统计分析.
- 利用了来自八种直接传播疾病的接触追踪数据.
- 开发了包含个体感染性差异的模型.
主要成果:
- 个体传染性的分布往往高度倾斜在R0周围.
- 考虑变化的模型预测了更频繁的灭绝和更罕见,更具爆炸性的爆发.
- 针对个体的具体控制措施表现出比全人口的方法更好的表现.
结论:
- 超级传播是疾病传播的正常特征,而不是异常.
- 有针对性的干预措施对于有效控制疫情至关重要.
- 识别高传染性的相关性对于预测和管理超级传播事件至关重要.
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