来自卫星测量的气溶直接辐射强迫的全球估计
Nicolas Bellouin1, Olivier Boucher, Jim Haywood
1Met Office, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. nicolas.bellouin@metoffice.gov.uk
Nature
|December 24, 2005
概括
人类产生的气溶通过散射和吸收太阳辐射对气候产生重大影响. 新的卫星数据显示,直接辐射强迫比以前估计的要强,这表明随着气溶排放的减少,未来的变暖将会更大.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候建模 气候建模
- 辐射转移是一种辐射转移.
背景情况:
- 大气中的气溶通过散射和吸收太阳辐射来影响地球的能量平衡.
- 人类气溶对气候系统产生直接的辐射强迫作用,但全球模型的当前估计存在不确定性.
- 以前的卫星测量范围有限 (仅限海洋) 和气溶类型信息.
研究的目的:
- 估计2002年空气溶在晴天的直接辐射强迫.
- 通过先进的卫星数据将陆地和海洋测量纳入其中.
- 与现有的模型估计相比,提供更可靠的气溶强迫评估.
主要方法:
- 利用最新的卫星测量气溶和表面风速.
- 采用蒙特卡洛方法来解决气溶测量和辐射转移算法的不确定性.
- 计算了大气顶部直接辐射强迫的概率密度函数.
主要成果:
- 全球年均晴天直接辐射强迫值估计为-1.9 W m(-2),标准偏差为+/- 0.3 W m(-2).
- 这种强迫值比当前模型估计的值更强.
- 这些发现包括陆地和海洋上的气溶数据.
结论:
- 当前气溶的直接辐射强迫可能比当前气候模型预测的要强.
- 这种更强的强迫力意味着未来大气变暖的可能性比目前预期的要大.
- 气溶排放量持续下降可能会加剧未来的变暖趋势.
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