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在全球变暖下,来自山地冰川和冰盖的低海平面上升预测
Sarah C B Raper1, Roger J Braithwaite
1Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27515 Bremerhaven, Germany. s.raper@mmu.ac.uk
Nature
|January 20, 2006
概括
全球变暖将导致海平面上升. 融化的山地冰川和冰盖对海平面上升的贡献不如以前预测的那么大,预计到2100年海平面上升0.0460.051米.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖预计将在整个21世纪提高平均海平面.
- 之前的预测估计热膨胀和冰融会有很大的贡献.
- 据估计,到2100年,山地冰川和冰盖将为海平面上升贡献0.106米.
研究的目的:
- 评估山地冰川和冰盖对海平面上升的贡献,不包括格陵兰岛和南极洲.
- 为冰川和冰盖的融化贡献提供单独的评估.
- 为了改善海平面上升模型中冰体积收缩的处理.
主要方法:
- 融化模型和几何体积模型的应用.
- 使用了较低的冰量估计.
- 用两个气候模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到2100年,山地冰川和冰盖将为海平面上升贡献0.0460.051米.
- 这一贡献大约是之前预测的一半.
- 由于面积迅速减少,冰川被确定为冰融的限制来源.
结论:
- 融化的山地冰川和冰盖代表21世纪海平面上升的组成部分比以前估计的要小.
- 冰盖的融化速度比山地冰川更慢.
- 冰川面积的减少显著影响了它们对海平面上升的贡献.
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