基于多模型合集的季节性气候预报的疟疾早期预警
M C Thomson1, F J Doblas-Reyes, S J Mason
1International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Earth Institute at Columbia University, New York, New York 10964-8000, USA.
Nature
|February 3, 2006
概括
季节性气候预报可以预测非洲的疟疾疫情. 该系统使用气候模型提供早期疟疾风险预警,改善疫情控制的资源配置.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 控制疟疾疫情是全球卫生优先事项.
- 气候变化通过影响蚊子和寄生虫动态,显著影响非洲疟疾传播.
- 季节性气候预报提供了对流行病风险的早期预警的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 利用季节性气候预测开发疟疾发病率预测系统.
- 评估该系统在预测博茨瓦纳疟疾风险方面的有效性.
- 为疟疾控制决策提供可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用来自欧洲全球合海洋-大气模型的基于动态的,季节性时间尺度的多模型组合气候预测.
- 应用了预测系统来预测博茨瓦纳的疟疾风险,博茨瓦纳是一个已确立的气候与疟疾联系的地区.
- 与传统方法相比,评估了系统的概率预测技能和交付时间.
主要成果:
- 开发的预测系统成功预测了博茨瓦纳的疟疾风险.
- 与基于观测到的降水的疟疾警告相比,实现了长达四个月的疟疾预警时间.
- 展示了相对较高水平的概率预测技能.
结论:
- 季节性气候预报可以为气候敏感地区的疟疾流行提供有价值的早期警告.
- 开发的预测系统提高了疟疾风险预测,使得对控制工作的资源配置更好.
- 将基于气候的预测纳入公共卫生战略可以改善疫情防控和应对.
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