在人工文化市场中对不平等和不可预测性的实验研究
Matthew J Salganik1, Peter Sheridan Dodds, Duncan J Watts
1Department of Sociology, 413 Fayerweather Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA. mjs2105@columbia.edu
概括
社会影响力显著影响产品的成功,使得成功不可预测. 虽然质量很重要,但人气动态会造成市场不平等,降低可预测性.
科学领域:
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 音乐行业研究 音乐行业研究
背景情况:
- 流行文化产品 (歌曲,书籍,电影) 的成功差异极大.
- 专家们很难预测哪些产品将获得广泛的普及.
- 这种差异表明成功和平均产品之间的质量差异.
研究的目的:
- 实验性地研究可预测的质量与不可预测的市场成功之间的悖论.
- 了解社会影响在决定产品在市场中的成功中的作用.
- 量化产品质量,社会影响力和市场结果之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 创建了一个人造音乐市场,有14341名参与者.
- 参与者下载了以前未知的歌曲.
- 下载发生在有或没有对先前选择的知识的条件下 (不同的社会影响).
主要成果:
- 增加的社会影响力扩大了不平等和歌曲成功的不可预测性.
- 产品质量只是成功的部分决定因素.
- 质量最高的歌曲很少失败,质量最低的歌曲很少成功,但中间结果是高度可变的.
结论:
- 社会影响力在塑造市场成功方面发挥着至关重要的作用,往往超过内在质量.
- 市场动态,由社会影响驱动,导致不可预测的结果和显著的不平等.
- 了解社会影响是理解文化市场现象的关键.
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