人类和自然的影响在低平流层冷却的演变中
V Ramaswamy1, M D Schwarzkopf, W J Randel
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08542, USA.
概括
全球低层平流层的冷却发生在火山爆发后的两个阶段. 人为因素 (如臭氧层损耗) 和自然因素都影响了这种冷却趋势.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 火山学 火山学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 全球较低层平流层在1979年至2003年间经历了显著的冷却.
- 这种冷却趋势不是渐进的,而是以明显的阶段性过渡发生的.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究低层平流层观察到的渐进式冷却背后的原因.
- 区分人类和自然因素在平流层温度变化中的作用.
主要方法:
- 对1979-2003年间的观测数据进行分析.
- 气候模型模拟用于归因温度变化.
- 评估臭氧层消耗,温室气体,太阳辐射和火山气溶的综合影响.
主要成果:
- 在两个明显的冷却过渡之前,有两个主要的火山爆发.
- 每个冷却步骤之后都会有稳定的温度周期.
- 气候模型证实,人为 (臭氧消耗,温室气体) 和自然 (火山气溶,太阳变化) 因素都导致了冷却模式.
结论:
- 人类因素是整体平流层冷却的主要驱动因素.
- 自然因素,特别是火山喷雾剂,调节了冷却趋势的时间和演变.
- 人类活动和自然事件之间的相互作用塑造了平流层气候动态.
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