非洲各地地表水供应的变化与预测的气候变化
Maarten de Wit1, Jacek Stankiewicz
1Africa Earth Observatory Network (AEON) and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa. maarten@cigces.uct.ac.za
概括
非洲的多年排水密度对降雨很敏感,干燥的地区经历了严重的地表水损失. 气候变化引起的降水减少,到2100年将威胁到非洲25%的水资源供应.
科学领域:
- 水文学和气候学
- 非洲水资源 非洲水资源
背景情况:
- 非洲各地的多年排水密度与年平均降雨量有非线性关系.
- 根据降水值确定了三个不同的水文系统.
研究的目的:
- 分析降水变化对非洲多年排水密度的影响.
- 确定脆弱地区并量化潜在的地表水获取减少.
主要方法:
- 分析多年排水密度作为年平均降雨量的函数.
- 模拟降水减少对不同降雨模式的排水密度的影响.
主要成果:
- 如果降水量减少10%,排水量在1000毫米/年下降17%,在500毫米/年下降50%.
- 处于中间,不稳定的降雨状态的地区受到影响最为严重.
- 预测的降水变化表明,到2100年,多年排水量将大幅减少.
结论:
- 减少常年排水将对25%的非洲地区的地表水获取产生重大影响.
- 迫切需要采取适应战略,以应对脆弱地区未来的水资源短缺问题.
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