气候变化与人类健康:现在和未来的风险
Anthony J McMichael1, Rosalie E Woodruff, Simon Hales
1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia. tony.mcmichael@anu.edu.au
Lancet (London, England)
|March 15, 2006
概括
人类造成的温室气体排放正在改变地球的气候,导致不良的健康影响. 本综述总结了气候变化对健康影响和未来风险的证据,为政策和适应战略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 科学共识证实人类活动,主要是温室气体排放,正在改变全球气候.
- 最近0.5°C的全球变暖部分归因于人为排放.
- 气候变化对人类健康构成重大,主要是不利的风险.
研究的目的:
- 总结有关气候变化和影响健康结果的趋势的流行病学证据.
- 评估现有证据,证明近期全球变暖对健康的影响.
- 审查气候变化的预计未来健康影响.
主要方法:
- 对连接气候变化与健康结果的流行病学证据的审查.
- 评估最近全球变暖对健康的影响的研究.
- 汇编了气候变化对未来健康影响的公布估计.
主要成果:
- 气候变化和趋势显然会影响各种健康结果.
- 有限的证据表明,最近的全球变暖已经影响了一些健康结果.
- 未来的预测表明,健康风险的范围广泛,包括热应激,传染病和社会和经济变化带来的破坏.
结论:
- 气候变化对健康的不利影响得到了流行病学证据和未来预测的支持.
- 预测这些健康风险强化了主动气候政策的理由.
- 了解这些影响对于优先考虑适应性健康战略至关重要.
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