1997-98年印度洋的海洋-大气动态
P J Webster1, A M Moore, J P Loschnigg
1Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Campus Box 311, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-311, USA. pjw@oz.colorado.edu
Nature
|July 25, 2006
概括
印度洋气候变化可能是由海洋大气内部动态驱动的,而不仅仅是像厄尔尼诺/南方振荡这样的外部事件. 这一发现可以改善该地区的气候预测.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
背景情况:
- 印度洋的气候变化表现出似乎独立于外部强迫因素的特征,如厄尔尼诺/南方振荡.
- 内部合的海洋大气动力学在塑造印度洋系统中的确切作用和机制仍然未解决.
研究的目的:
- 分析1997-98年印度洋海面温度,海面高度,降水和风的季节性异常.
- 为了将这些异常与40年的印度洋气候变化数据进行比较.
- 调查内部动态驱动该地区显著气候异常的潜力.
主要方法:
- 详细分析了1997-98年海面温度,海面高度,降雨量和风力数据.
- 与40年历史的印度洋气候变化记录进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 1997-98年印度洋的强烈异常,尽管与一个主要的厄尔尼诺/南方振荡事件相吻合,但似乎主要是由内部动力学驱动的.
- 海洋与大气相互作用的拟议机制控制了1997-98年的事件,这表明印度洋气候系统的特征性内部模式.
结论:
- 1997-98年印度洋气候异常可能代表了一种内部模式,与对外部影响的直接反应不同.
- 如果这种内部模式是强大的,它有可能提高印度洋气候的可预测性,类似于太平洋的厄尔尼诺预测.
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